The R-134a Rumor Mill is in Overdrive

By Peter Coll, MACS Past President – Published on 6/18/2025 

Over the past several weeks, MACS has received many questions related to the availability of R-134a and a rumor that R-134a would no longer be available for use in vehicle servicing at the end of 2025.

We are not sure what the sources of these rumors are, but here is what we know about the 2025 US refrigerant market in simple terms.

• The US AIM Act of 2020 authorizes the EPA to phase down the use of HFCs. The EPA has set a goal of reducing the use of HFCs to 85% of baseline by 2036 (Figure 1).
• R-134a is an HFC.
• Refrigerant producers, importers, and industrial consumers receive HFC allocations from the EPA each year based on a historical formula. This allocation forms the basis of how much HFC product can be produced, imported or consumed by each company.
• The EPA DOES NOT regulate which product can be manufactured or consumed. Instead, they regulate the amount of CO2 equivalent (or in simple terms, Global Warming Potential (GWP) value), that can be offered.
• For example, if R-134a has a GWP of 1,430 and R-152a has a GWP value of 124, the supplier could offer approximately 11 times the amount of R-152a as they could R-134a (since R-152a has a much lower GWP than R-134a, more of it can be manufactured or consumed and still fall within the EPA allowance). Most suppliers balance what they offer with market demand to effectively use their allocation and maximize profitability.

So where does that leave us for the 2025 season? R-134a remains available with no current, regulation based, date for it to become unavailable.

Will the price rise? It is likely that it will.

Will it be harder to find or placed on limited purchase quantity from some distributors? Certainly possible.

At the end of the day, availability of R-134a will be determined by the suppliers based on supply and demand for the overall HFC market needs. R-134a retrofit options are in the works and may well be available before the end of 2025 in the US. Just like any other commodity, the adoption of retrofit solutions will generally be defined by the price and supply of R-134a.

About the author: Peter Coll is managing director of Coll Me Peter, LLC and past president of MACS. He is an active member of several SAE committees, currently serving as Vice-Chair of the Interior Climate Control Standards Committee. Peter is one of the world’s foremost experts in refrigerant analysis technology, having previously served as Vice President of Neutronics for more than 23 years. You can reach Peter at peter@collmepeter.com  

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